The effect of pests and pathogens on forest harvesting regimes: A bioeconomic model

Pests and diseases are an existential threat to trees in forests woodlands. There is, therefore, a pressing need use ecological bioeconomic models inform forest managers on control mitigation strategies. For example, the incidence of Dothistroma needle blight UK has increased rapidly since 1990s, it is significant productivity commercial forestry. Climatic changes expected exacerbate this problem further. Control disease primarily focuses good stand management through pre-commercial thinning; similar practices widely used worldwide. Forest would benefit from evidence effectiveness precautionary strategy (in comparison its alternatives) reduce impacts increase value extracted timber. In paper, we develop model determine economically optimal harvesting regime – terms thinning rotation even-aged plantation under risk invading pest. We extend Schaefer–Faustmann include compartmental epidemiological system that governs timber growth spread. analyse set regimes, including timing final clear-felling level earlier thinning. Thus, our approach, decide whether when thin must balance (i) before infection destroys timber’s (ii) exploiting forest’s density-dependent growth. sensitivity analysis with respect spread impact tree dynamics demonstrate that, presence disease, can significantly improve net present if applied correctly. Furthermore, reduces transmission rate significantly, priority protect harvest, rotations while time shortens. Our study provides framework help design appropriate strategies disease.